Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 10:00:55

ACUS48 KWNS 051000
SWOD48
SPC AC 050959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The upper low over the central U.S. will lift northward
Wednesday/Thursday as an upstream impulse moves south across the
central Rockies, reinforcing the trough position over the central
portion of the country. This upper trough should move slowly east
through the weekend (Day 7/8). A series of cold fronts will move
across much of the central/eastern U.S. through the outlook period.

....Wednesday/Day 4...
The surface low and associated cold front will move across the
central/lower Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast as forcing for
ascent associated with the upper low lifts north away from the
greatest instability. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance
continues to suggest generally weak (at or below 1000 J/kg)
instability in advance of the front, while deep-layer shear would
support organized storms.  Although some severe risk will likely
exist, the degree of destabilization, and the northward extent,
remains in question due to poor lapse rates and expected widespread
precipitation. Thus, have opted not to introduce a 15% aggregate
risk area with this outlook.

....Thursday/Day 5 and beyond...
Weak instability will likely remain confined to the near-coastal
areas from the FL Panhandle into southern GA/northern FL
Thursday/Friday with some strong/severe storm potential with an
eastward-moving cold front. Ensemble guidance suggests low
confidence at this time regarding the degree of instability,
although strong storms will remain a possibility. Thereafter, a
mostly dry/stable air mass will cover much of the U.S. resulting in
low thunderstorm potential.

...Bunting.. 02/05/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.