Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 08:28:27

ACUS03 KWNS 050828
SWODY3
SPC AC 050827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Sun Feb 05 2023

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
across portions of southern/southeast Texas.

....Southern/southeast Texas...
The southern portion of an upper-level trough will evolve into a
closed low structure over TX/OK Tuesday as a surface cold front
moves east across central/eastern TX. Strengthening low-level flow
will result in northward transport of lower 60s surface dew points
inland and contribute to the development of modest surface-based
instability. Although cloud cover will likely be widespread and
limit diurnal heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop near
and east of the cold front as large-scale lift develops during the
day.

Deep-layer shear will be more than sufficient for organized storm
structures including a couple of supercells, and a linear mode with
time as the cold front advances east late in the day. The primary
uncertainty at this juncture is the degree and extent of
surface-based destabilization ahead of the front. A categorical
Marginal Risk has been introduced where confidence appears highest
in MLCAPE of 500-750 J/kg developing through low-level theta-e
advection and weak surface heating. A risk for isolated damaging
winds will exist primarily in association with the expected
development of a line of storms near the front, while some potential
for low-level rotation may exist with more discrete cells developing
in the afternoon/evening as low-level southerly flow strengthens and
hodographs become favorably curved in the surface-3 km layer.

...Bunting.. 02/05/2023

$$

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