Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 07:38:53

FOUS30 KWBC 050738
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Sun Feb 05 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southeast Florida to Space Coast...
A quasi-stationary front draped through the Bahamas has led to
easterly to northeasterly flow across southeast Florida early this
morning. A pool of deeper moisture characterized by precipitable
water values exceeding 1.25" has been drawn toward the coastline
where regional radar currently shows numerous showers. The
moisture pool will be drawn northward today along an inverted
trough where the latest hi-res guidance and 00Z HREF suggests
potential for localized 2-3" totals along the immediate coast. If
deeper instability were to develop, intense rain rates exceeding
1"/hr would be possible but it's likely the strongest cores will
remain just offshore. Given the relatively dry conditions in place
and the uncertainty in the deeper/stronger showers being onshore,
an excessive rainfall outlook was drawn for the area. However,
locally heavy downpours remain possible over the highly urbanized
corridor of Southeast Florida northward toward the Space Coast
which could lead to localized runoff issues through 18Z today.

Taylor


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Taylor


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-qV4x7ky2XJUAtP0zG7pCzslBPdMVhF2_OPeSUIDy6Jv=
URd0dMr89iKDI0EK_2BbRWTjNPsqIAf3Dg2PdVk6HnTT4aA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-qV4x7ky2XJUAtP0zG7pCzslBPdMVhF2_OPeSUIDy6Jv=
URd0dMr89iKDI0EK_2BbRWTjNPsqIAf3Dg2PdVk6UMwwdpE$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-qV4x7ky2XJUAtP0zG7pCzslBPdMVhF2_OPeSUIDy6Jv=
URd0dMr89iKDI0EK_2BbRWTjNPsqIAf3Dg2PdVk6PsaFu5o$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.