Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 05:26:55

ACUS01 KWNS 050526
SWODY1
SPC AC 050525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

....Discussion...

Very cold mid-level temperatures (<-30C @ 500mb) will overspread
northern CA into NV later today as a pronounced upper trough
advances inland. Steepest mid-level lapse rates will be observed
north of the jet as it digs toward the lower CO River Valley during
the latter half of the period. While a few flashes of lightning may
be noted with convection along the northern CA Coast, a greater risk
for isolated thunderstorms will be in upslope regions of the Sierra
Nevada during the afternoon.

Broad troughing over the MS Valley/northern Gulf Basin will shift
east during the period with a southern-stream short-wave trough
forecast to eject across the FL Peninsula toward the FL Atlantic
Coast during the evening. In response to this feature,
moisture/instability will gradually advance north across the
southern parts of the state; however the primary zone of low-level
convergence should focus along/just east of the peninsula by 06/00z.
Forecast soundings suggest moistening/destabilizing profiles will
become favorable for thunderstorm development within this zone of
increasing warm advection. While forecast shear would suggest some
weak supercell potential, poor lapse rates do not warrant
introducing severe probabilities at this time.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 02/05/2023

$$

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