Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 00:28:57

ACUS01 KWNS 050028
SWODY1
SPC AC 050027

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....01z Update...

Buoyancy remains weak across northern CA ahead of approaching upper
trough. 00z sounding from OAK exhibits about 50 J/kg MUCAPE if
lifting a parcel around 800mb. With time, mid-level
cooling/steepening lapse rates should aid instability north of the
primary jet. As a result, destabilization will likely be adequate
for deeper updrafts by 04-06z along the coast, and after 06z near
the Sierra Nevada.

Across south Florida, profiles have moistened a bit, primarily in
the lowest 3km which is contributing to a few hundred J/kg of
SBCAPE. However, 500mb temperatures are fairly warm and this is
limiting buoyancy as mid-level lapse rates are quite poor. Scattered
showers will likely continue near the corridor of greatest low-level
convergence, mostly offshore, but most updrafts will fail to attain
heights necessary for lightning discharge.

...Darrow.. 02/05/2023

$$

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