Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 05 2023 00:15:47

FOUS30 KWBC 050015
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
714 PM EST Sat Feb 04 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Feb 04 2023 - 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southeast Florida...
A cold front that pushed through the region late Friday is
expected to become quasi-stationary and linger over the Florida
Straits today into early Sunday.  Northeasterly flow behind the
front is expected to become more easterly and then southeasterly
as high pressure to the north moves offshore later today and into
the overnight.  Deepening moisture pooling along the coast will
support shower and the thunderstorm development later today and
tonight, with locally heavy downpours possible.  Neighborhood
probabilities from the 18Z HREF suggest isolated rainfall totals
of 2 to 3 inches are possible along the coast by Sunday morning as
moisture begins to get drawn from the Bahamas to southeast Florida
and precipitable water values locally exceed 1.5 inches. Given the
current dry conditions, rains that develop are expected to be
beneficial for most areas and therefore an excessive rainfall risk
area was not highlighted at this time. However, a very isolated
risk for runoff exists, especially for any heavy rains that do
develop over urbanized areas. Furthermore, the HREF does show some
very low neighborhood probabilities (<10%) for 3 hr QPF exceeding
FFG between 0900-1200 UTC Sunday morning.

Hurley/Bann

=20
Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann

=20
Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7LB96_2R-ltkDxcocqv-cOADkQDZYRFswSJHT_DiV9aA=
tItu9Qx-swhNeecokJ7cuTqAAWiWHpn5PT3USeEoY1FnWQY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7LB96_2R-ltkDxcocqv-cOADkQDZYRFswSJHT_DiV9aA=
tItu9Qx-swhNeecokJ7cuTqAAWiWHpn5PT3USeEosZyhqfs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7LB96_2R-ltkDxcocqv-cOADkQDZYRFswSJHT_DiV9aA=
tItu9Qx-swhNeecokJ7cuTqAAWiWHpn5PT3USeEoKw3lC30$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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