Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 04 2023 20:23:13

FOUS30 KWBC 042023
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EST Sat Feb 04 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sat Feb 04 2023 - 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southeast Florida...
A cold front that pushed through the region late Friday is
expected to become quasi-stationary and linger over the Florida
Straits today into early Sunday.  Northeasterly flow behind the
front is expected to become more easterly and then southeasterly
as high pressure to the north moves offshore later today and into
the overnight.  Deepening moisture pooling along the coast will
support shower and the thunderstorm development later today and
tonight, with locally heavy downpours possible.  Neighborhood
probabilities from the 12Z HREF suggest isolated rainfall totals
of 3 inches or more are possible along the coast by Sunday morning
as moisture begins to get drawn from the Bahamas to southeast
Florida and precipitable water values locally exceed 1.5 inches.=20
Given the current dry conditions, rains that develop are expected
to be beneficial for most areas and therefore a risk area was not
highlighted at this time.  However, a very isolated risk for
runoff concerns, especially for any heavy rains that do develop
over urbanized areas cannot be ruled out.  Furthermore, the HREF
does show some very low neighborhood probabilities for 3 hr QPF
exceeding FFG.=20

Bann



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 2030Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68aZGKSCAEN1-gPFXeAnUlBfY7VWs_ckRmgwW-KfgYEw=
boaOBz0C3xX1gEE1bewKU1p7Sq_G5XGQw9aNqe5VZW-YNs0$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68aZGKSCAEN1-gPFXeAnUlBfY7VWs_ckRmgwW-KfgYEw=
boaOBz0C3xX1gEE1bewKU1p7Sq_G5XGQw9aNqe5VxfzxoHY$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!68aZGKSCAEN1-gPFXeAnUlBfY7VWs_ckRmgwW-KfgYEw=
boaOBz0C3xX1gEE1bewKU1p7Sq_G5XGQw9aNqe5Va7iESms$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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