Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 04 2023 19:12:53 ACUS01 KWNS 041912 SWODY1 SPC AC 041911 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 04 2023 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. No changes were made to the previous outlook, as thunderstorm chances in general remain low. A few convective showers may linger over far southern Florida, with a better chance of lightning tonight over northern California as an upper trough moves ashore. Weak instability profiles will preclude any severe threat. ...Jewell.. 02/04/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023/ ....Northern CA... A shortwave impulse embedded within a broader northeast Pacific upper trough will impinge on the northern half of the CA coast tonight. The warm conveyor region ahead of this wave will yield an eastward-moving precipitation band crossing the coast this evening and into the Sierras tonight. Scant elevated buoyancy may develop within the upslope flow regime along the western Sierras and support very isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, cooling mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates will foster scant surface-based instability along the northern CA coast in the early morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible; embedded within scattered, post-frontal low-topped convection. ....Southeast FL... Very poor mid-level lapse rates of 4-5 C/km sampled in 12Z observed soundings will curtail thunderstorm potential today. Low-level flow will shift from east-northeasterlies to southeasterlies tonight and result in gradual moistening. This should support scattered low-topped showers overnight with perhaps a thunderstorm or two in the early morning. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .