Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 04 2023 12:45:22

ACUS01 KWNS 041245
SWODY1
SPC AC 041243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....South Florida...
Weak height rises will occur today as low-level easterlies will tend
to maintain a semi-moist air mass across the region with scattered
convection for much of the period. The proximity of the
stalled/slow-moving surface front, and aforementioned
semi-moist/weakly unstable air mass, may allow for isolated
thunderstorms near the coastal southeast Florida Peninsula, Keys,
and Florida Straits. Robust thunderstorms are unlikely given
thermodynamic profiles characterized by weak lapse rates/buoyancy.

....Northern California...
An eastward-progressive shortwave trough will reach coastal portions
of northern California and Oregon late tonight. Increasing moisture
and steepening mid-level lapse rates will support some potential for
isolated thunderstorms near/behind the inland-moving frontal band.
These thunderstorms will be possible initially near coastal
areas/offshore waters as early as this evening, and potentially
across interior northern California/Sierras late tonight and early
Sunday. Severe thunderstorms are unlikely given weak overall
buoyancy and residual cool boundary layer air.

...Guyer/Leitman.. 02/04/2023

$$

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