Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 04 2023 09:47:50 ACUS48 KWNS 040947 SWOD48 SPC AC 040946 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 04 2023 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ....DISCUSSION... An active pattern is expected for much of the long term period. A mid-level trough will emerge from the Southwest on Tuesday and may become a closed low across the southern Plains Wednesday before moving toward the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Thursday. On Thursday/Friday, another trough/closed low will cross the Plains and move into the Southeast. There remains considerable uncertainty as to the amplitude/timing of each of these features which limits the predictability of the severe weather threat. ....D4/Tue - Southern Plains... Low/mid 60s dewpoints are expected to overspread east Texas on Tuesday beneath a capping inversion. Global guidance consistently shows height falls across the region during the afternoon/evening which will likely be sufficient for the cap to break. However, forecast soundings show relatively weak instability which could limit storm intensity. Nevertheless, shear will be sufficient for storm organization, and even potentially low-level mesocyclone organization. Therefore, if surface based storms can develop in this environment, some severe weather is possible. ....D5/Wed - Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama... Significant variation exists in the evolution of the upper-level pattern on Wednesday with the GFS showing an open wave and the ECMWF showing a much stronger closed-low and a sharp negative tilt. In addition to being different from one another, neither has been consistent from run-to-run. A more amplified, negatively-tilted system should lead to more favorable kinematics and forcing and greater severe weather potential. However, the major hurdle to severe weather in the region will be destabilization. Mid-60s dewpoints are expected to reach as far north as central/north-central Mississippi, but the combination of relatively warm mid-level temperatures and cloud cover across the warm sector currently indicate that instability may struggle. At this time, Wednesday appears to have the greatest severe weather potential of the week, but destabilization concerns and model disagreement preclude severe weather probabilities at this time. ....D7/Fri - Georgia into the Carolinas... Despite the model uncertainty in the D4/D5 period, there is still enough consensus in the longer wave pattern for reasonable confidence that a storm system could develop along the remnant front and affect portions of Georgia into the Carolinas on Friday. A pre-existing warm sector could lead to better moisture quality and destabilization, but model solutions need to converge before the severe weather threat can become more clear. ...Bentley.. 02/04/2023 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .