Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 04 2023 07:47:03

FOUS30 KWBC 040746
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 AM EST Sat Feb 04 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 04 2023 - 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southeast Florida...
A cold front that pushed through the region earlier today is
expected to linger over the Florida Straits into Sunday.=20
Northeasterly flow behind the front is expected to become more
easterly and then southeasterly as high pressure to the north
moves offshore later today and into the overnight.  Deepening
moisture pooling along the coast will support shower and the
thunderstorm development later today and tonight, with locally
heavy downpours possible.  Neighborhood probabilities from the 00Z
HREF suggest isolated rainfall totals of 3 inches or more are
possible along the coast by Sunday morning.  Given the current dry
conditions, rains that develop are expected to be beneficial for
most areas and therefore a risk area was not highlighted at this
time.  However, a very isolated risk for runoff concerns,
especially for any heavy rains that do develop over urbanized
areas cannot be ruled out.  Furthermore, the HREF does show some
very low neighborhood probabilities for 3 hr QPF exceeding FFG.=20

Pereira



Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023 - 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira



Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 06 2023 - 12Z Tue Feb 07 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Pereira



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43AC7ri4Cu4XV6Y4zP223OP7jfbn7bmd1rGzuoGOH60g=
dCNVz5Xtpnl1mXL0VGxoa7_3L3yDfCoRSClDRfANCuWlAeY$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43AC7ri4Cu4XV6Y4zP223OP7jfbn7bmd1rGzuoGOH60g=
dCNVz5Xtpnl1mXL0VGxoa7_3L3yDfCoRSClDRfANBkSlYMI$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!43AC7ri4Cu4XV6Y4zP223OP7jfbn7bmd1rGzuoGOH60g=
dCNVz5Xtpnl1mXL0VGxoa7_3L3yDfCoRSClDRfANfi7Mm34$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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