Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 04 2023 05:34:50

ACUS01 KWNS 040534
SWODY1
SPC AC 040533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe-thunderstorm threat is low on Saturday.

....Northern CA...

Latest model guidance continues to suggest a strong short-wave
trough will approach the northern CA Coast by the end of the period.
120m mid-level height falls (12hr) will overspread this region north
of a pronounced 500mb jet (85kt). This feature will translate inland
after 05/06z, aiding destabilization as lapse rates steepen.
Mid-level temperatures will cool significantly Saturday night with
500mb values dropping at least 10C during a 12hr period north of the
jet. Forecast soundings suggest marine-influenced coastal areas will
support deep convection, capable of producing lightning by 05z,
while upslope regions of the Sierra Nevada will destabilize toward
the end of the period.

....South FL...

Weak height rises are expected across south Florida Saturday along
the southern fringe of modest west-northwesterly flow aloft. While
the primary surface front has currently sagged into the FL Straits,
large-scale pattern favors higher-PW air mass advancing north again
during the latter half of the period. Deep easterly flow across the
southern Peninsula should aid a zone of weak low-level convergence
that will establish itself near the FL Atlantic Coast. While lapse
rates will remain poor, forecast soundings suggest ample buoyancy
for at least a threat of lightning discharge within the deeper, more
robust updrafts.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 02/04/2023

$$

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