Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 03 2023 19:44:20

ACUS01 KWNS 031944
SWODY1
SPC AC 031942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

....20Z Update...
The general thunderstorm area has been trimmed with this outlook
update, to account for the southward progression of convection along
the outflow-reinforced cold front moving across the FL Peninsula.
Thunderstorms earlier produced 40-50 mph gusts in the Melbourne
vicinity, though the stronger storms have subsequently weakened or
moved offshore. Any remaining thunderstorm activity across the
southern FL Peninsula is expected to be generally weak and isolated,
as low-level flow continues to veer and weaken ahead of the
southward-moving front.

...Dean.. 02/03/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0943 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023/

....Central/south FL...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along and
just ahead of a cold front pushing south into central FL. 12Z
observed and forecast mid-level lapse rates are weak. With only
modest boundary-layer heating, limited instability will mitigate
robust updrafts. Veered low-level winds ahead of the front will
curtail hodograph curvature. However, the southern periphery of
stronger mid-level westerlies attendant to the low-amplitude,
positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Southeast will maintain
40-50 kt effective shear. Locally gusty winds and small hail are
possible in the deepest storms through sunset, before onset of
nocturnal cooling and weakening low-level convergence yield
diminishing convection this evening in south FL.

$$

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