Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 03 2023 15:45:15

ACUS01 KWNS 031545
SWODY1
SPC AC 031543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Central/south FL...
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing along and
just ahead of a cold front pushing south into central FL. 12Z
observed and forecast mid-level lapse rates are weak. With only
modest boundary-layer heating, limited instability will mitigate
robust updrafts. Veered low-level winds ahead of the front will
curtail hodograph curvature. However, the southern periphery of
stronger mid-level westerlies attendant to the low-amplitude,
positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Southeast will maintain
40-50 kt effective shear. Locally gusty winds and small hail are
possible in the deepest storms through sunset, before onset of
nocturnal cooling and weakening low-level convergence yield
diminishing convection this evening in south FL.

...Grams/Jewell.. 02/03/2023

$$

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