Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 03 2023 13:02:15

ACUS01 KWNS 031302
SWODY1
SPC AC 031300

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The severe thunderstorm threat is low today.

....Florida...
A southern-stream positive-tilt shortwave trough over the Deep South
will continue eastward and move off the Atlantic coast by early
evening. A cold front will settle south-southeastward across the
Florida Peninsula, with isolated thunderstorms remaining a
possibility along/south of the front.

A few thunderstorms are ongoing early today across northern Florida,
and additional convection will likely develop along the front as it
advances south during the afternoon. 12z observed and forecast lapse
rates are poor, and limited instability/weak low-level convergence
do not favor organized robust updrafts. While some stronger/gusty
winds cannot be ruled out with the strongest convection, the
probability for severe winds is still expected to remain less than 5
percent.

...Guyer/Leitman.. 02/03/2023

$$

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