Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 03 2023 09:56:44

ACUS48 KWNS 030956
SWOD48
SPC AC 030955

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential should remain low across the CONUS on Day 4/Monday
as a positively tilted upper trough advances eastward across the
Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains. There is
still a large amount of spread in medium-range guidance regarding
the potential for this trough to evolve into a closed upper low over
parts of the Southwest or southern/central Plains on Day 5/Tuesday.
Regardless of this feature's evolution, some low-level moisture
should attempt to return northward across portions of the southern
Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast in the middle to
latter portion of next week. Depending on when the upper trough/low
ejects eastward, some severe threat could develop across parts of TX
as soon as Tuesday evening, and continue eastward over the lower MS
Valley and Southeast from Day 6/Wednesday onward. Regardless, there
is too much variability in guidance regarding the placement/speed of
the upper trough/low, and uncertainty in how much low-level moisture
and instability will be available to support robust convection, to
include any 15% severe areas at this time.

...Gleason.. 02/03/2023

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