Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 03 2023 08:21:47 ACUS03 KWNS 030821 SWODY3 SPC AC 030820 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Fri Feb 03 2023 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... The southern portion of a large-scale upper trough should move quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and over the FL Peninsula by Sunday night. Low-level moisture is forecast to advance slowly northward across parts of south/central FL, with a weak surface low possibly developing off the FL Atlantic Coast Sunday evening/night. Diurnal heating of this airmass should promote weak instability by Sunday afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered convection may develop and preferentially favor the Atlantic Coast sea breeze across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. Most guidance suggests low-level flow will remain fairly modest across the warm sector, with gradually strengthening mid-level westerlies through the day as the upper trough approaches from the west. It appears that deep-layer shear will be sufficient for modest thunderstorm organization. However, poor lapse rates aloft will probably tend to limit updraft strength, and any thunderstorms that do develop should have a tendency to move off the coast and into adjacent near shore waters with time. Due to these potential limiting factors, will not include low severe probabilities across south/central FL at this time. Across the western CONUS, another large-scale upper trough should develop eastward through the period. Low-topped convection supported by cold mid-level temperatures and steepened lapse rates aloft could produce isolated lightning flashes across parts of coastal northern CA, mainly Sunday morning. Other isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon over portions of the Sacramento Valley and adjacent Sierra Nevada Mountains. Instability for both regions should remain too weak to support a threat for severe thunderstorms. ...Gleason.. 02/03/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .