Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0128
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 03 2023 01:37:15

ACUS11 KWNS 030137
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030136=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-030530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0128
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Areas affected...Western and northern NY into far northwestern VT

Concerning...Snow Squall=20

Valid 030136Z - 030530Z

SUMMARY...There is increasing potential for snow squalls over parts
of western and northern NY into far northwestern VT during the next
1-3 hours. Rapid visibility reductions are possible in bursts of
heavy snow.

DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery depicts a few loosely
organized snow bands tracking east-southeastward across southern
Ontario and Quebec along/ahead of an advancing arctic cold front.
Surface observations show a substantial pressure rise/fall couplet
with this feature. As the front continues southeastward this
evening, these snow bands may intensify/organize into snow squalls
as they overspread parts of western/northern NY and northwestern VT.

The 00Z observed BUF sounding showed a conditionally unstable
boundary-layer (6.6 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates) and strong
west-southwesterly low-level flow (44-kt BL mean wind) ahead of the
front. These conditions, coupled with forcing along the cold front
and strengthening large-scale ascent in the exit region of an
approaching mid/upper-level jet, generally support snow squall
development. However, the BUF sounding and surface observations
indicate dry boundary-layer conditions into western NY -- casting
some uncertainty on persistence and organization. With that said,
continued light snow over western NY/related wet-bulb cooling and
low-level moisture advection off the Lower Great Lakes could yield
increasing boundary-layer RH, and overall conditions appear
favorable for snow squalls capable of quick visibility reductions in
bursts of heavy snow.

...Weinman.. 02/03/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7xvKu7cM4k9Jzn79qfyPoXcwJd4xj6M8GV740ydAz6Z25t3ozN6K0BGnwHcFXSar39XMKB4_5=
foTtM6MRmyOVNLgAXQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   44367324 43517529 42807679 42777788 43007854 43327873
            43457838 43497739 43627683 44117651 44667580 45037503
            45077398 45097300 44937282 44367324=20


=3D =3D =3D
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