Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 03 2023 00:59:44

ACUS01 KWNS 030059
SWODY1
SPC AC 030058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida
Panhandle late tonight, perhaps accompanied by gusty winds.

....01z Update...

Upper trough is ejecting across the Arklatex region early this
evening. This feature is forecast to advance into the central Gulf
States by the end of the period. While modest mid-level height falls
will spread ahead of the trough, low-level convergence will remain
weak along the front sagging into the FL Panhandle. Southwesterly
low-level trajectories have contributed to a modified Gulf air mass
advancing across coastal FL Panhandle, per upper 60s to near 70F
surface dew points near AAF. While surface-based parcels remain
capped, 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE has developed offshore, extending into
the southern part of the Panhandle. 00z Sounding from TLH exhibits
substantial surface-6km shear, more than adequate for organized,
rotating updrafts, and with a few showers currently noted southwest
of Panama City, some of this activity could spread onshore later
tonight with an attendant risk for gusty winds.

...Darrow.. 02/03/2023

$$

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