Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 02 2023 22:55:32

FOUS30 KWBC 022255
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EST Thu Feb 02 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Thu Feb 02 2023 - 12Z Fri Feb 03 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...


Antecedent saturated soil conditions due to consistent parade of
storms over the last few weeks have been highlighting the concern
for the potential for showers and thunderstorms to present an
elevated risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across
portions of the South and Southeast.  Soil moisture values (per
NASA SPoRT-LIS products) are running above normal particularly
across much of LA into MS and AL due to above average rainfall
over the past week.  A shortwave shears into the confluence zone
across Texas into the Tennessee Valley with reduced amplification.
 While 1"/hr totals are possible, particularly downwind of the
instability pool near the northeast Gulf coast/FL Panhandle and
Big Bend, elsewhere 0.5"/hr totals could be hard to come by,
except within areas of low- to mid-level frontogenesis inland from
much of the instability.  Given that more inland areas are more
coincident with the most saturated ground conditions, there was
still reason for a Marginal Risk across portions of LA, MS, and
AL.  The Marginal Risk was trimmed on its north and west side and
shifted southeast towards the northeast Gulf Coast instability
pool.   Overall, an axis of primarily prolonged light to moderate
over-running precipitation throughout the night with areal
averages of 1-1.5" is expected within the Marginal Risk area.=20

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 03 2023 - 12Z Sat Feb 04 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 04 2023 - 12Z Sun Feb 05 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4dXOLsGtu3_s1RcMUd5nYbJDxi5jBn5WM0qmQ2kGsXmb=
dCMkXOzXiNJxHCr0uNpuS_Pt_jdmmDa8dDhGr8X80ccHX1A$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4dXOLsGtu3_s1RcMUd5nYbJDxi5jBn5WM0qmQ2kGsXmb=
dCMkXOzXiNJxHCr0uNpuS_Pt_jdmmDa8dDhGr8X8eRu5Wr0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4dXOLsGtu3_s1RcMUd5nYbJDxi5jBn5WM0qmQ2kGsXmb=
dCMkXOzXiNJxHCr0uNpuS_Pt_jdmmDa8dDhGr8X8smOhDxs$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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