Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 02 2023 16:17:12 ACUS01 KWNS 021617 SWODY1 SPC AC 021615 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ....SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Florida Panhandle late tonight, perhaps accompanied by gusty winds. ....Synopsis... Split flow across the eastern Pacific has become less amplified, with one generally zonal belt emanating from the southern mid-latitudes likely to become increasingly influential across the U.S. today into this weekend. This will coincide with the eastward acceleration of the prominent downstream Arctic low, which has been centered near/northeast of Hudson Bay for the past week or so, and the suppression of the subtropical ridging which has been centered over the Caribbean vicinity. In response to a couple of vigorous short wave impulses digging around its western and southern periphery, the Arctic low is forecast to redevelop southward and southeastward, across Hudson Bay into Quebec, today through tonight, within larger-scale mid-level troughing amplifying southward across much of the Northeast. It appears that this will be accompanied by the initiation of strong surface cyclogenesis across southern Quebec through the lower St. Lawrence Valley, and a significant trailing intrusion of cold air across most areas east of the Rockies. An initially stalled or slower moving lead front across the Southeast into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico may slowly accelerate southeastward across much of the remainder of the eastern Gulf and south Atlantic Coast states (including northern Florida) later today through tonight, before increasingly being overtaken by the trailing front. This will occur as an upstream short wave trough continues to progress eastward, in phase with a branch of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific. However, this perturbation will become increasingly sheared within an increasingly confluent regime across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley, and any associated wave development along the surface front is still forecast to remain quite weak. ....Florida Panhandle vicinity... Along/ahead of the lead surface front, mid/upper 60s F surface dew points spreading inland across coastal areas between Apalachicola and Pensacola will contribute to boundary-layer destabilization today. However, CAPE is likely to remain weak, with convective development suppressed due to warm layers with weak lapse rates aloft, associated with the subtropical ridging. It is possible that forcing for ascent may increase in close proximity to the surface front as it begins to advance eastward through the Florida Panhandle late this evening and overnight. Coupled with cooling aloft, this may support increasing thunderstorm development in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. However, by this time, low-level hodographs are forecast to become more linear, with wind fields in the lowest few kilometers above ground level remaining somewhat modest (on the order of 30-40 kt around 850 mb). While a couple of storms with gusty winds approaching severe limits might not be out of the question, the risk for severe weather appears generally low. ...Kerr.. 02/02/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .