Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 02 2023 09:54:12

ACUS48 KWNS 020954
SWOD48
SPC AC 020952

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Thu Feb 02 2023

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential should remain low across the CONUS from Day
4/Sunday into Day 5/Monday as an upper trough moves eastward across
the western CONUS and Southwest. From Day 6/Tuesday onward, the
latest GFS, ECMWF, and their respective ensembles show rapidly
diverging solutions regarding the evolution of this upper trough
across the central/eastern CONUS. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean
suggest that the upper trough will evolve into a closed upper low
and eject northeastward across the Plains from Day 7/Wednesday into
Day 8/Thursday. Some severe threat could materialize across parts of
the southern Plains on Wednesday if this slower progression occurs.

The ECMWF and EPS ensemble mean show a much faster ejection of the
upper trough across the Plains on Tuesday, and the rest of the
eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. It remains unclear whether
sufficient low-level moisture will be able to return northward ahead
of this feature to support an organized severe threat if this faster
solution verifies. Regardless, some potential for severe
thunderstorms may exist across parts of the southern Plains
beginning as soon as Tuesday, and for portions of the lower MS
Valley and Southeast Wednesday into Thursday. There is far too much
uncertainty in the timing and evolution of the upper trough and
related surface features to include any 15% severe areas at this
extended time frame. But, trends will be monitored.

...Gleason.. 02/02/2023

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