Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 02 2023 05:41:40

ACUS01 KWNS 020541
SWODY1
SPC AC 020540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Gusty winds may accompany thunderstorms over the Florida Panhandle
Thursday night.

....Florida Panhandle...

Positive-tilt upper trough, currently located over eastern
NM/northern Mexico, is forecast to eject into the central Gulf
States by 03/12z. This evolution will result in low-level
trajectories off the northern Gulf Basin that will only allow
modified Gulf air mass to progress into part of the FL Panhandle
ahead of a cold front. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift
will sag to a position from south-central GA-western FL Panhandle by
03/06z, with subsequent movement into southeast GA-northern FL
Peninsula by sunrise Friday. Forecast soundings ahead of the front
exhibit weak lapse rates, but adequately moist and buoyant profiles,
for at least a risk for a few robust thunderstorms late in the
period. Deep westerly flow across this region suggests limited
low-level shear, and instability should struggle to advance
appreciably inland.  Therefore, the MRGL Risk will be primarily for
the near-coastal areas of the Panhandle. Greatest threat for
convection will be along the front and this should be during the
overnight hours. Locally damaging winds are the primary risk.

...Darrow/Moore.. 02/02/2023

$$

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