Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 01 2023 17:25:13

ACUS02 KWNS 011725
SWODY2
SPC AC 011723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FL
PANHANDLE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN AL/SOUTHWEST GA......

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated strong wind gusts will be possible
across the Florida Panhandle and parts of southern Alabama and
southwest Georgia, mainly late Thursday night into early Friday
morning.

....Parts of the central Gulf Coast...
A mid/upper-level trough initially over the southern High Plains is
forecast to move eastward toward the Southeast states and begin to
weaken Thursday into Thursday night, as it moves into a confluent
upper-level flow regime. Richer low-level moisture will gradually
spread northward into parts of southern LA/MS/AL/GA and the FL
Panhandle, in advance of a weak surface wave that is forecast to
develop along a nearly stationary front near the LA Gulf Coast and
move east-northeastward Thursday night into Friday morning.

The potential for organized convection appears limited for most of
the forecast period. While deep-layer flow/shear will be rather
strong, weak midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with MLCAPE
expected to remain less than 500 J/kg. In addition, with stronger
large-scale ascent not expected to arrive until late in the period,
convection will generally be elevated north of the front for most of
the day, within a modest low-level warm advection regime. The
greatest relative risk for a few stronger storms is expected late
Thursday night into early Friday morning across southern AL/GA and
the FL Panhandle, as the primary mid/upper-level trough approaches
and somewhat stronger ascent overspreads the warm sector. Isolated
strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out with any stronger storms
in this area.

...Dean.. 02/01/2023

$$

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