Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 01 2023 16:19:05

ACUS01 KWNS 011619
SWODY1
SPC AC 011617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

....Discussion...
An upper low remains centered over the Baja Peninsula, contributing
to broad southwesterly flow aloft which will persist across the
southern Plains today. This southwesterly flow aloft supports a
large area of stratiform precipitation extending from far west TX
eastward/northeastward through the Arklatex towards the Mid-South.

The upper low is forecast more progressive today through tomorrow
morning, moving across northern Mexico and into the southern High
Plains. As it does warm-air advection/isentropic ascent will
increase ahead of it over the southern Plains, with an attendant
increase in elevated buoyancy. This buoyancy supports the potential
for deeper convective elements capable of lightning production,
mainly after 06Z.

...Mosier/Bentley.. 02/01/2023

$$

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