Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 01 2023 09:02:02

ACUS48 KWNS 010902
SWOD48
SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential should be minimal this upcoming weekend across the
CONUS, as rich low-level moisture should remain confined to the Gulf
of Mexico and perhaps parts of south FL. There is reasonably good
agreement in medium-range deterministic and ensemble guidance that
another upper trough will move eastward over the western/central
CONUS early next week. While is there is still uncertainty in how
this upper trough will ultimately evolve by Day 7/Tuesday into Day
8/Wednesday, it currently appears unlikely that sufficient low-level
moisture return will occur across the southern Plains and lower MS
Valley to support robust convection. Accordingly, the potential for
organized severe thunderstorms should remain low through the
extended forecast period.

...Gleason.. 02/01/2023

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