Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 01 2023 06:50:33

ACUS02 KWNS 010650
SWODY2
SPC AC 010648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southern
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Thursday
through Thursday night. Occasional strong/gusty winds should be the
main threat, but a tornado or two also appears possible.

....Central Gulf Coast...
A positively tilted upper trough will eject eastward across the
southern Plains, lower MS Valley, and Southeast on Thursday. The
surface response to the approaching upper trough will likely remain
muted, with just a weak low forecast to develop from southeastern LA
across southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle through Thursday night.
The northern extent of any isolated/marginal severe threat will be
confined by a warm front that will lift only slowly northward across
these areas through Thursday evening. Still, low to mid 60s surface
dewpoints should gradually spread northward over the developing warm
sector.

Rather poor mid-level lapse rates are expected to be in place. This
should hinder the development of any more than weak instability,
even with some diurnal heating. Indeed, most guidance suggests that
MLCAPE will likely remain less than 500 J/kg, and perhaps even below
250 J/kg. This quite modest boundary-layer instability seems to be
on the lower bounds of supporting even an isolated/marginal severe
risk. Have opted to maintain the Marginal Risk for now, given some
signal for convection to eventually develop Thursday evening/night
as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the
central Gulf Coast. If thunderstorms can develop along/south of the
front, then occasional strong/gusty winds should be the main threat
given strong deep-layer shear supporting updraft organization and
some enhancement to the low-level wind fields. Modestly enlarged
hodographs in the boundary layer may also support a low threat for a
tornado or two.

...Gleason.. 02/01/2023

$$

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