Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0121
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 01 2023 06:27:03

ACUS11 KWNS 010626
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010626=20
TXZ000-011230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0121
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 AM CST Wed Feb 01 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Big Bend into the western
Hill Country

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 010626Z - 011230Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain is forecast to gradually intensify overnight
tonight as it slowly spread north and eastward. Freezing rain rates
may approach 0.05-0.1 in/hr, at times, within heavier bands.

DISCUSSION...Over the last couple of hours, regional radar and IR
satellite imagery have shown a gradual intensification of a band of
clouds/light precipitation across portions of the TX Big Bend and
Rio Grand Valley. Associated with increasing ascent ahead of a broad
upper low centered over Baja California, precipitation should
gradually increase in coverage and intensity overnight as the low
shifts eastward. Surface observations across portions of west TX
show surface temperatures in the mid to upper 20s F within the
shallow Arctic airmass. Mid-levels remain somewhat dry as indicated
by the 00z DRT sounding, but subtle surface dewpoint rises over the
last few hours indicate slow saturation of the low and mid-levels is
occurring. As broad ascent continues to intensify ahead of the upper
low, precipitation should gradually spread north and eastward with
rates potentially intensifying to 0.05-0.1 in/hr within banded
structures.=20

Hi-res guidance suggests the greatest freezing rain rates will
remain south of I-10 for the next few hours hours where low and
mid-levels are more saturated. Freezing precipitation should
eventually spread north of I-10 and into the western Hill country
between 8-10z. With rates of 0.05-0.1 in/hr possible at times, there
exists the potential for significant icing.

...Lyons.. 02/01/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4MLD_HITYTC55QLPrMdacJ8p8DJU7tkHWRIYxGbxQw6k4O9v8Y7ZqUaNR1_hzt7qQqSCWeCRl=
QV9_ZbHWQLgn-Sk9Tg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   30440391 31750243 32620135 32940021 32679946 31959909
            31269915 30679957 30060055 29820103 29670155 29730228
            29320272 28870311 28850340 28960383 29040392 29340436
            29440441 30440391=20


=3D =3D =3D
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