Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 31 2023 19:48:00

ACUS01 KWNS 311947
SWODY1
SPC AC 311946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Valid 312000Z - 011200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low through tonight.

....20Z Update...
The general thunderstorm area from central TX into the Ark-La-Tex
region has been removed. Lightning activity has recently diminished
within the area of precipitation moving across AR and northeast TX.
While a few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out for the remainder
of this afternoon from northeast TX into the Ark-La-Miss region,
increasingly scant elevated buoyancy should generally limit the
thunderstorm threat for the remainder of the forecast period.

...Dean.. 01/31/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023/

....Discussion...
Stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the CONUS
as high surface pressure dominates the sensible weather. The only
exceptions are across portions of the southern Plains, where
persistent southwesterly flow is contributing to a broad area of
precipitation, and southwest AZ, where an upper low is promoting
some rain showers.

The southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Plains also
supports a warm noise above the shallow and cold air mass in place,
resulting in modest elevated buoyancy and occasional instances of
thunder sleet/freezing rain. Profiles from the latest guidance
support a persistence of this thunder potential northeastward into
more of eastern OK and western/central AR.

$$

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