Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 31 2023 17:17:31

ACUS02 KWNS 311717
SWODY2
SPC AC 311715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
An mid/upper-level low initially over Baja California is forecast to
move eastward and gradually weaken on Wednesday into early Thursday
morning. A broad precipitation plume is expected to develop north of
a surface front across much of Texas toward the Ark-La-Miss region.
Weak elevated buoyancy may support sporadic lightning flashes within
this precipitation plume, especially Wednesday evening into the
overnight hours as the primary upper system approaches the region.
Convectively enhanced winter precipitation will again be possible
across parts of central/north TX into southeast OK/western AR.

A separate area of elevated convection may develop near or just
offshore of the upper TX coast prior to 12Z Thursday, in closer
proximity to the surface front and deeper moisture above the frontal
inversion. Despite the presence of rather strong deep-layer
flow/shear, instability is expected to remain too weak for a severe
threat, with any stronger storms expected to remain offshore.

...Dean.. 01/31/2023

$$

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