Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 31 2023 10:00:00

ACUS48 KWNS 310959
SWOD48
SPC AC 310958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An isolated severe threat may continue on Day 4/Friday across parts
of FL as an upper trough advances across the Southeast. A cold front
will advance southward across the FL Peninsula through the day, and
enough low-level moisture and instability should be in place to
support surface-based thunderstorms. However, low-level convergence
along the front will probably remain weak, which may limit the
overall threat for severe thunderstorms.

Minimal low-level moisture across a broad majority of the CONUS
should keep severe potential low this upcoming weekend into early
next week. There are some indications in medium-range guidance that
another upper trough may move across the western/central CONUS from
Day 7/Monday into Day 8/Tuesday. At this point, there appears to be
insufficient low-level moisture return ahead of this upper trough to
support a meaningful severe risk.

...Gleason.. 01/31/2023

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