Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jan 31 2023 08:29:26 ACUS03 KWNS 310829 SWODY3 SPC AC 310828 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Tue Jan 31 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southern/coastal Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. ....Central Gulf Coast... An upper trough is forecast to eject across the southern Plains on Thursday. This feature should eventually reach the lower MS Valley vicinity by late Thursday night into early Friday morning. The surface response to this upper trough over the central Gulf Coast states appears rather muted/weak in most guidance, with the exception of the 00Z GFS. Regardless, at least some low-level moisture return should occur across coastal portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle by Thursday afternoon, with low to mid 60s surface dewpoints prevalent along/south of a front. Mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain quite poor, which should limit destabilization though the day even with some diurnal heating. It remains uncertain whether sufficient boundary-layer instability will be realized to support surface-based thunderstorms. Still, the best chance for robust convection will probably remain along/near the coast. Strong deep-layer shear will prove more than enough for updraft organization with any thunderstorms that can develop Thursday afternoon/evening across the warm sector. Isolated damaging winds may occur with any clusters or linear structures that develop and spread eastward. Sufficiently enhanced low-level shear should also support a threat for a couple of tornadoes. But, it remains rather uncertain how much convective development will occur south of the front given the late timing of the upper trough and its generally positive tilt, which may encourage more elevated convection along/north of the surface boundary. There is also considerable uncertainty with how far north the low-level moisture will advance into southern/central AL. Given these uncertainties, have opted to remain fairly conservative by including only low severe probabilities, and in limiting the northern extent of the Marginal Risk in AL for now. ...Gleason.. 01/31/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .