Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 31 2023 05:46:27

ACUS02 KWNS 310546
SWODY2
SPC AC 310544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Wednesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low will move eastward across the Southwest and
northern Mexico on Wednesday, eventually reaching the southern High
Plains by early Thursday morning. A 50-60+ kt southwesterly
mid-level jet will persist over much of TX into the lower/mid MS
Valley. Surface high pressure should extend from the southern Plains
to the eastern CONUS, with rich low-level moisture expected to
remain off the TX Coast. Isolated convection, producing a mix of
sleet, freezing rain, and rain at the surface, may occur well north
of a surface front from parts of TX into the ArkLaTex. Modest
low-level warm advection ahead of the approaching upper trough/low
should aid these elevated thunderstorms. This activity will have
access to only very weak instability, with MUCAPE expected to remain
below 500 J/kg. Some increase in convective coverage may occur
Wednesday night across parts of east/central TX as large-scale
ascent preceding the upper trough/low overspreads this area.

...Gleason.. 01/31/2023

$$

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