Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 31 2023 05:44:59

ACUS01 KWNS 310544
SWODY1
SPC AC 310543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.

....Synopsis...
A split-flow upper-level pattern will feature a mid-level low over
the CA/AZ/Mexico border region, a belt of strong southwesterly flow
from TX to the Mid-Atlantic states, and a broad mid-level trough
over the Great Lakes.  A surface front will slowly push southward
through the western Gulf of Mexico, with the northeast extension of
the boundary bifurcating parts of the Southeast.  Surface high
pressure will encompass much of the area from the Interior West
through the central Great Plains and into the Northeast.  A few
showers and a couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Sonoran
Desert in association with cold mid-level temperatures and steep
lapse rates.  Scant buoyancy over the Edwards Plateau northeastward
into eastern TX may yield a few lightning flashes with deeper
convection that may develop.

...Smith/Lyons.. 01/31/2023

$$

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