Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0117
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jan 31 2023 01:48:27

ACUS11 KWNS 310148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310147=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-310745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Arkansas into western
Tennessee

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 310147Z - 310745Z

SUMMARY...Rain will gradually transition to moderate and locally
heavy freezing rain tonight. Freezing rain rates may approach
0.1-0.2 in/hr at times.

DISCUSSION...As of 01:30 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a broad
area of rain and occasional mixed precipitation ongoing across
portions of central AR. Recent surface observations show surface
temperatures falling to near or below freezing over the last couple
of hours across portions of northeastern AR and far western TN. 00z
RAOBS and SPC mesoanalysis also show a prominent warm nose (+2 to +4
C) driven by moderate low and mid-level warm advection over the Mid
MS Valley. With surface temps falling below freezing, rain should
transition to freezing rain over the next couple of hours as the
main precipitation band shifts north and east. Hi-res model guidance
suggests some banded or weak convective structure may produce
freezing rain rates of 0.1-0.2 in/hr at times. Freezing rain should
continue for several hours overnight with the potential for sleet
and mixed precip later this evening as the boundary layer continues
to cool from strong surface cold advection.

...Lyons.. 01/31/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9wcPBKzyQBPq3SwRzif4uRCbY5l5L79nsKa4NRtJ5cKbosHmvzTbPIIrcSP8zXmvreKFbxPGg=
HXA_pykM5txXXYc0VY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35639244 35849172 36189057 36408928 36388889 36098851
            35728853 35458899 35198983 35119066 35089192 35199256
            35639244=20


=3D =3D =3D
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