Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0115
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 20:16:25

ACUS11 KWNS 302016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302015=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-302315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Areas affected...Parts of north central and northeastern Texas into
southeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 302015Z - 302315Z

SUMMARY...A consolidating cluster of thunderstorms may be
accompanied by increasing freezing rain rates in excess of 1/4 inch
per hour, near and northeast of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex into
parts of southeastern Oklahoma through 5-6 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...Closer to the leading edge of the shallow sub-freezing
near-surface  air mass, the overlying layer of air above freezing is
warmer and deeper across north central Texas into southeastern
Oklahoma, as convection with embedded thunderstorms to the south and
southwest gradually increases.  This activity may be supported by
forcing associated with a mid/upper perturbation within a belt of
westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which is
forecast to continue to spread northeastward toward the Ark-La-Tex
vicinity through 23-00Z.  Elevated moisture return appears to be
contributing to inflow with CAPE increasing up to 250-500 J/kg,
which at least some model output suggests may support a
consolidating and upscale growing cluster of storms.  This may be
accompanied by peak rainfall rates increasing in excess of 1/4 inch
per hour, enhancing ice accrual on exposed objects in the
sub-freezing air.

...Kerr.. 01/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8i-UNWReDkVy7DujOXA5XoRXLckNJjycR-1iTLXw71pO1tk8lnzuOs7XD30St6xeGTG1yXKV1=
dg8njM-55MlUmSZAD0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   34009638 34759542 34789453 33449533 32659602 32469649
            32939684 34009638=20


=3D =3D =3D
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