Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 19:33:26

ACUS01 KWNS 301933
SWODY1
SPC AC 301931

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 302000Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue for at least the
next few hours from central TX northeastward across eastern OK and
western AR. Much of this will occur atop below-freezing surface
temperatures, resulting in thunder sleet in several locations,
including north-central TX, eastern OK, and far southwest MO, and
mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet across central TX and
west-central/southwest AR.

Isolated thunderstorm are still possible from southern MS through
southern GA this afternoon/evening, as well as across southern CA
from now through tomorrow morning.

...Mosier.. 01/30/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023/

....Synopsis...
A midlevel low will move east-southeastward from near the southern
CA coast to northwest Mexico by Tuesday morning, with the potential
for some low-topped convection and isolated lightning flashes close
to the southern CA coast.  Farther east, midlevel ridging will
persist over FL, with low-amplitude speed maxima translating
east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Atlantic coast.
Isolated thunderstorms will still be possible along a stalled front
from southeast LA to southern GA, but weak forcing for ascent
suggests that storm coverage will be isolated at best.

The most pronounced thunderstorm threat today will be with the
elevated convection over central/eastern OK into north TX.  Regional
12z soundings revealed 100-300 J/kg MUCAPE rooted in the 850-700 mb
layer, which will support a continued threat for elevated
thunderstorms through the day.  The majority of this convection will
occur atop a sub-freezing boundary layer, with primarily thunder
sleet in OK and a mix of thunder freezing rain/sleet farther south
in TX.

$$

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