Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0114
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 19:19:26

ACUS11 KWNS 301919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301918=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-302315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0114
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Areas affected...parts of east central/northeastern Oklahoma into
northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation=20

Valid 301918Z - 302315Z

SUMMARY...Accumulating sleet at rates up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour
may become more widespread in a corridor to the south of Interstate
44, across east central Oklahoma through the Fayetteville and
Branson areas of northwestern Arkansas and southwest Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Continued low-level moisture return beneath modestly
steep lapse rates, on the northwestern periphery of slowly building
mid-level ridging (to the northwest of the subtropical ridge
centered over the Caribbean), has contributed to weak
destabilization across parts of the southern Great Plains.  This is
supporting an ongoing increase in convection with embedded
thunderstorm activity near and to the east and south of the
Interstate 35 and 44 corridors of eastern Oklahoma, generally along
a sharp quasi-stationary lower/mid tropospheric baroclinic zone
associated with a recent cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies.

Along and north of this frontal zone, the surface through roughly
925 mb layer is characterized by temperatures in the mid teens to
near 20 F, while a shallow layer above this air mass remains above
freezing.  The convection appears largely rooted above the warm
nose, with associated frozen precipitation mostly reaching the
surface has ice pellets/sleet.

Forcing for convection appears largely due to lift associated with
low/mid level warm advection and frontogenesis which are forecast to
continue to develop east-northeastward across the Interstate 40
corridor of eastern Oklahoma, into northwestern Arkansas and areas
of southwestern Missouri to the south of Interstate 44 through
21-23Z.  Although lightning may decrease as convection gradually
consolidates, sleet accumulation rates could still increase a bit
further up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch per hour.

...Kerr.. 01/30/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5QUMrrc-pQ7gse02KXOf9Q5G6Lb5nTJ5pdvEftchDXk7oc_bKtvRToP0cMCoXFEKVyHHo9Lut=
sqcOLQIV9oAitbG7TU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35679623 36469511 36829427 37109333 36879265 36309274
            35999399 35429507 35149614 35679623=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.