Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 12:56:12

ACUS01 KWNS 301256
SWODY1
SPC AC 301254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 301300Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today or tonight.

....Discussion...
Broad southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained from the Southwest
deserts to the central/southern Plains and much of the Midwest/East.
Subtle low-amplitude disturbances will continue to spread
northeastward within this regime, including atop a post-frontal
polar air mass entrenched across Oklahoma/much of Texas toward the
Ozarks/Midwest, with warm advection driving elevated convection
across parts of Oklahoma/north Texas and the ArkLaTex/Ozarks.

Thunderstorms will also be possible across the middle Gulf
Coast/Southeast States within a moist air mass near a west/southwest
to east/northeast-oriented front. Very weak forcing will generally
be noted along this front, with the primary risk for isolated
thunderstorm during the first part of the day.

Additionally, a cold upper trough will dig southeast across southern
California toward the northern Baja Peninsula this afternoon. Cold
mid-level temperatures and steepening lapse rates should result in
weak buoyancy that could support a few thunderstorms. The greatest
concentration of convection will be offshore, extending just inland
along the southern California Coast.

...Guyer/Goss.. 01/30/2023

$$

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