Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 09:52:10

ACUS48 KWNS 300952
SWOD48
SPC AC 300950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should eject from the southern Plains across the
lower MS Valley and Southeast on Day 4/Thursday. Latest guidance has
trended towards a slightly slower and more positively tilted
solution regarding the evolution of this upper trough. Related
surface low development now appears a bit more muted across the
central Gulf Coast states. Even with these developments, some
low-level moisture return should occur across coastal/southern
LA/MS/AL into southern GA and north FL on Thursday. Poor mid-level
lapse rates should tend to limit the amount of boundary-layer
instability that can develop across the warm sector. But,
strengthening mid-level winds ahead of the upper trough will aid in
convective organization, with strong deep-layer shear forecast.

The main limiting factors appear to be modest instability, veered
southwesterly low-level flow, and the development of just a weak
surface low. Still, an isolated threat for damaging winds and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes may exist across this region as
thunderstorms develop and spread eastward, mainly Thursday afternoon
through Thursday night. At this point, confidence in a more
substantial severe threat is too low to include a 15% severe area,
but low/marginal severe probabilities will likely be needed for
Thursday in a future outlook if current model trends continue.

An isolated severe risk may persist into Day 5/Friday mainly across
parts of FL as the upper trough progresses eastward and a cold front
moves southward over this region. Sufficient low-level moisture
should be in place to support surface-based thunderstorms. But,
lingering uncertainties regarding the degree of instability and
convective coverage along the cold front preclude introducing a
severe area at this time. Low severe potential is evident across the
CONUS for the upcoming weekend, as the cold front should eventually
stall over the FL Peninsula.

...Gleason.. 01/30/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.