Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 05:50:41

ACUS02 KWNS 300550
SWODY2
SPC AC 300548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed mid-level low centered over southern CA and the Baja
Peninsula Tuesday morning will develop only slowly eastward through
the period. With confluent flow aloft persisting over much of the
central/eastern CONUS, a large area of surface high pressure will
remain in place over this region. Appreciable low-level moisture
will be confined along/south of a front which should extend from
deep south TX across coastal portions of the central Gulf Coast
states and into parts of GA/SC. Both instability and large-scale
forcing for ascent are expected to remain minimal where this
low-level moisture exists, which should generally limit the
potential for surface-based thunderstorms.

To the north of the surface front, there appears to be some
potential for isolated lightning flashes with clearly elevated
convection from parts of TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. This
activity will be aided by modest warm/moist advection atop the
stable near-surface layer, along with somewhat steepened mid-level
lapse rates. MUCAPE is forecast to remain quite weak, generally less
than 500 J/kg, and overall convective coverage should remain rather
isolated.

...Gleason.. 01/30/2023

$$

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