Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 05:47:08

ACUS01 KWNS 300547
SWODY1
SPC AC 300545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

....Discussion...

Broad, deep southwesterly flow is forecast to continue across much
of the CONUS from the southwestern desert region, over the
southern/central Plains into the OH Valley/Northeast. Within this
flow, a few very minor disturbances will likely eject across a polar
air mass that is entrenched over OK/TX. However, warm advection is
expected to be the primary mechanism for elevated convection atop a
shallow, mostly below freezing, boundary layer. Weak LLJ should
induce weak convection early in the period across northwest TX/OK
and a few flashes of lighting will likely accompany a mostly sleet
event, as MUCAPE could be on the order of 300-500 J/kg. Farther
south, elevated convection is expected to be associated with a mix
of sleet/freezing rain into portions of the DFW Metroplex.

Across the northern Gulf Coast to the southeast Atlantic Coast, a
weak surface boundary will remain draped from southern LA to
southern GA. Very weak forcing will be noted along this front and
the greatest risk for an isolated thunderstorm will be early in the
period when warm advection will be somewhat more concentrated.

Cold upper trough will dig southeast across southern CA toward the
northern Baja Peninsula Monday afternoon. Cold mid-level
temperatures and steepening lapse rates should result in weak
buoyancy that could support a few thunderstorms by 21z. Greatest
concentration of convection will be offshore, extending just inland
along the southern CA Coast.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 01/30/2023

$$

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