Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jan 30 2023 00:29:36

FOUS30 KWBC 300029
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
728 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2023

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Jan 29 2023 - 12Z Mon Jan 30 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Broad shield of overrunning precipitation over a stationary
boundary draped along the Gulf Coast ahead of shortwave energy
moving within the southwesterly flow aloft will continue to bring
northeastward anomalously high moisture across the region. The
latest precipitable water values per blended TPW products show
values in excess of 1.5" with isolated readings near 1.75", which
is near 2.5 standard deviations above normal for this time of
year. The recent runs of the HRRR and 18Z HREF continue to show
that a stripe of heavier rainfall is expected through tonight
across parts of southern Alabama and southwest Georgia where the
signal for isolated 3" totals looks favorable (HREF probs for 6-hr
QPF exceeding 3" is 40-60 percent) and hourly totals between 1-2"
are possible. See MPD #053 that is valid through 05Z for more
details.

Further to the west across parts of LA and MS, convection is
expected to be more isolated/scattered in nature but also near
where earlier rainfall produced isolated 3-4" totals and the soils
are a bit more sensitive to the additional rainfall. Until the
shortwave energy over Louisiana lifts northeast through 06-09Z,
there should be a continued redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms over the boundary, keeping the flash flood risk in
place. The main limiting factor for intense rain rates is the lack
of deep instability, which is only found near/south of the frontal
boundary. This should keep the flash flood threat more
isolated/scattered in nature. For the Excessive Rainfall Outlook,
minor adjustments were made based on the latest HRRR and 18Z HREF
trends

Taylor


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 30 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 31 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 31 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 01 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6zPkxCRNmjqzkVyUkw8RIWU-9_Q1BY9cx3-kJ6KBpv4y=
4EhcbRFP3l7K5WHSzV4LtZEM2xJq3WGF_v17IuTlXDNgJyM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6zPkxCRNmjqzkVyUkw8RIWU-9_Q1BY9cx3-kJ6KBpv4y=
4EhcbRFP3l7K5WHSzV4LtZEM2xJq3WGF_v17IuTlnN_PE1c$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6zPkxCRNmjqzkVyUkw8RIWU-9_Q1BY9cx3-kJ6KBpv4y=
4EhcbRFP3l7K5WHSzV4LtZEM2xJq3WGF_v17IuTlWpjydX8$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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