Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 29 2023 13:12:33

ACUS01 KWNS 291312
SWODY1
SPC AC 291310

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0710 AM CST Sun Jan 29 2023

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas eastward along the middle
Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east
Texas. Otherwise, locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or
two could occur across the region.

....Gulf Coast including Southeast Texas to Florida Panhandle...
One or more subtle low-amplitude/low-latitude disturbances will
influence the region as warm/moist advection otherwise persists
across a broad region. Scattered showers/elevated thunderstorms are
common early today across east/southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana.

Diurnal destabilization is expected today along the middle to upper
Texas coast in advance of the southeastward-advancing cold front.
However, overall destabilization, especially with northward extent
away from coastal areas, should remain modest owing to
aforementioned scattered convection and lingering cloud cover. Most
convection will probably remain slightly elevated inland, but a few
potentially severe near-surface-based storms are possible within the
warm sector, particularly if/where stronger surface heating occurs.


As moisture-rich marine air spreads toward additional parts of the
Gulf Coast, areas from far southern Mississippi into far southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle may experience an increasing
severe risk by late afternoon and evening. This could be influenced
by weak/secondary wave development along the marine front and a
secondary/developing branch of the low-level jet. A combination of a
few supercells and organized linear/small-scale bowing segments
could occur.

...Guyer/Goss.. 01/29/2023

$$

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