Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0113
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 29 2023 02:28:59

ACUS11 KWNS 290228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290228=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-290830-

Mesoscale Discussion 0113
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Wisconsin into central
Lower Michigan.

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 290228Z - 290830Z

SUMMARY...An east/northeastward moving snow band with periodic heavy
snow may intensify supporting snow rates near 1 in/hr at times
overnight.

DISCUSSION...Evening regional radar imagery indicates a localized
snow band has developed within a broad area of light to moderate
snow ongoing across portions of southeastern WI. Over the last
couple of hours, intensification has been noted with surface
stations and local storm reports west of MKE indicating heavy snow
with rates near or exceeding 1 in/hr. Associated with a subtle vort
max and 850-700 mb frontogenesis, hi-res guidance indicates the band
will likely remain organized as it shifts east-northeast through the
rest of this evening near the MKE metro. Periodic heavy snow with
rates near 1 in/hr will be possible with the primary band for the
next few hours across southeastern WI before upper-level forcing
shifts east over Lake Michigan.

Current trends suggest weak DCVA and frontogenesis will gradually
shift east/northeastward into lower MI, supporting moderate snow and
the potential for locally heavy snow rates near 1 in/hr from 4-8z.
Some lake enhancement may occur through the broader precip shield
immediately downstream of the Lake shore across west-central Lower
MI, but the heaviest snow is expected to remain confined to the
narrow band beneath the frontogenesis maximum. Moderate snow should
continue overnight with rates gradually diminishing from west to
east after 9z as forcing aloft begins to wane.

...Lyons/Grams.. 01/29/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!55TZOG7ax50S-UtNmBdpW41A-HbL1lf1dBFuhl-_x1Sds9-6yNB4lzo0QXODK0lJKWa8zOllW=
MvMarP6U76iYuIXtRU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MKX...

LAT...LON   42878821 43068848 43308831 43578793 43788701 44108532
            44408348 44148274 43468247 43258274 42988495 42878821=20


=3D =3D =3D
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