Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jan 29 2023 00:37:29

ACUS01 KWNS 290037
SWODY1
SPC AC 290036

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0636 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

....01z Update...

LLJ will continue to increase this evening over the Mid-South region
as it responds to a deamplifying short-wave trough ejecting across
the central Plains. Given the deamplification observed, low-level
warm advection, in the presence of continued moistening, will be the
primary mechanism for convective development tonight. Currently,
numerous showers are noted within this warm-advection zone from
northeast TX into western TN. While lightning is not yet evident
with this activity, buoyancy should increase such that deeper
elevated updrafts will eventually produce lightning. 00z sounding
from SHV exhibits less than 100 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near
850mb. This should increase into the early-morning hours supporting
expected thunderstorm development.

...Darrow.. 01/29/2023

$$

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