Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 28 2023 19:54:58

ACUS01 KWNS 281954
SWODY1
SPC AC 281953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

....Synopsis...
Low-level moistening continues across southern and eastern Texas
amid moderate lower tropospheric flow. MUCAPE has now increased to
around 500 J/kg along the Texas Gulf Coast. Instability will
continue to increase as low-level moisture advects northward.
Elevated thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight from east
Texas into Arkansas. Additional surface-based thunderstorms will
develop over the western Gulf late in the period. These storms will
remain mostly offshore, but a few strong cells could move onshore
toward the end of the period (29/12Z).

...Bentley.. 01/28/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023/

....East/southeast TX to AR tonight...
Within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the CONUS, one embedded
shortwave trough over northern AZ will move eastward to OK by
tonight, as other embedded waves over northwest Mexico approach TX.
Air mass modification/low-level moistening will continue from the
western Gulf of Mexico to the Ark-La-Tex, in advance of an arctic
cold front that will reach OK/northwest TX early Sunday.  The
gradual moistening in a low-level warm advection regime, combined
with the approaching/low-amplitude shortwave troughs, will support a
gradual increase in the threat for elevated thunderstorms tonight
from east TX into AR.  An isolated strong storm may occur near the
end of the forecast period (29/12z) along the upper TX coast, but
the primary severe threat will remain in the day 2 period.

$$

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