Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Jan 28 2023 17:15:27 ACUS02 KWNS 281715 SWODY2 SPC AC 281713 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of the upper Texas Coast/east Texas into the central Gulf Coast states. Some hail may occur with thunderstorms in east Texas. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes should be the main threats. ....Synopsis... A mid-level jet will eject from Mexico and overspread moderate mid-level flow across the Gulf Coast States on Sunday. A low-level jet is expected to strengthen to around 35 to 40 knots across the western Gulf. At the surface, a strong cold front will move south across the Central Plains and near the Gulf Coast by 12Z Monday. Moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico, ongoing today, will start to stall Sunday morning as the surface low across Texas fills and surface flow weakens. This should keep richer low-level moisture offshore for most of the day Sunday. In addition, elevated convection is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning in a region of isentropic ascent from southeast Texas into Louisiana. These storms should also reinforce the marine front and keep it mostly confined to the coast. ....East Texas and Vicinity... Decent mid-level lapse rates and moderate elevated instability (~1000 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected Sunday morning across eastern Texas. This could support a few updrafts capable of large hail, potentially extending into southwest Louisiana. Surface based storms are possible later in the day across southeast Texas. An EML is expected across the region which will keep the region mostly capped with rather nebulous large scale forcing. Later in the afternoon, convergence along the southward moving cold front could be sufficient for a few surface based storms to develop. Long, relatively straight hodographs will support hail as the primary threat. ....Gulf Coast... Rising heights across the warm sector, weak lapse rates, and only a small region of surface based instability along the coast are the primary limiting factors to severe convection. Otherwise, deep layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and there is enough low-level directional/speed shear for some low-level mesocyclone organization. However, even within the broadly favorable wind profile, surface winds are also quite weak which will be an inhibiting factor. If a cluster of storms can develop and propagate east along/near the marine front, which is shown by a few CAM solutions, the damaging wind threat may be somewhat greater given the 30-35 knots of flow at 0.5km on RAP forecast soundings. Although, this low-level jet is expected to weaken through the day, is only supported by a subset of the CAM solutions, and the thermodynamic environment will likely remain marginal. ...Bentley.. 01/28/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .