Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 28 2023 09:48:24

ACUS48 KWNS 280948
SWOD48
SPC AC 280946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Sat Jan 28 2023

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low should evolve from the Southwest and northern
Mexico towards the southern High Plains from Day 4/Tuesday into Day
5/Wednesday. A large area of surface high pressure over much of the
central and eastern states should limit the northward return of rich
low-level moisture across the southern Plains ahead of the upper
trough/low. While elevated thunderstorms may occur across parts of
TX/LA as low-level warm advection occurs, instability will likely
remain quite weak. This should limit the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms through Wednesday.

From Day 6/Thursday into Day 7/Friday, the upper trough should
acquire a positive tilt and eject across the southern Plains, lower
MS Valley, and Southeast. Even though some differences in placement
remain, medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement that rich
low-level moisture will advance northward across parts of the
central Gulf Coast states and FL Thursday afternoon into Friday.
With strong deep-layer shear expected, an isolated severe risk may
materialize across these areas even though instability is forecast
to remain weak. Still, the overall setup/environment appears a bit
too marginal to include any 15% severe areas at this time.

...Gleason.. 01/28/2023

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