Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Jan 28 2023 08:15:35

FOUS30 KWBC 280815
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
315 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2023

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Jan 28 2023 - 12Z Sat Jan 28 2023

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS & WESTERN LOUISIANA...

A digging longwave positively-tilted trough will cause a jet
streak to slowly strengthen from the MS River Valley into the
Northeast Saturday night. Meanwhile, deep Gulf moisture will be
directed northward from the Bay of Campeche into eastern TX and
southwest LA, as a front pushes south and east out of the Plains
and into northeast TX through AR. As is typical of most January
nights, instability will be the primary limiting factor. MUCAPE
will increase to between 100 and 400 J/kg late Saturday night.
Only a small northward nudge of the inherited Marginal was made to
account for the ARW's depiction of potentially heavy convection
across northern LA, though this is far from certain.

Antecedent conditions remain favorable in the Marginal Risk area
with nearly saturated soils, though that may be mitigated somewhat
by the dry conditions expected today. PWATs will increase Saturday
to between 1.5 and 1.75 inches along the TX Gulf Coast, which is
as much as 2.5 sigma above normal for this time of year. The LLJ
will increase to 40-50kt across northern LA/southern AR, while
further south in the Marginal Risk area, expect the LLJ to be
closer to 30 kt. Nonetheless this will advect plentiful Gulf
moisture into the area which will support training convection.
While the forcing will be greater further north, again the lack of
instability should disallow short-term heavy rainfall rates, even
if there are training cells into southern AR.

Wegman



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Qe87GVO08stylGiQYNPR-HOipDrg7-V_W4vuy1-VYxt=
3_8SKy4jcCu0ZOX1JpFms3jBOpgogv60eYl8Nj2mBMklhZg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Qe87GVO08stylGiQYNPR-HOipDrg7-V_W4vuy1-VYxt=
3_8SKy4jcCu0ZOX1JpFms3jBOpgogv60eYl8Nj2mZ4qWcH0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8Qe87GVO08stylGiQYNPR-HOipDrg7-V_W4vuy1-VYxt=
3_8SKy4jcCu0ZOX1JpFms3jBOpgogv60eYl8Nj2mxzbFsQ0$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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